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Title:	Predicting the Probability of Stand Disturbance
Author(s):	Reams, Gregory A.; McCollum, Joseph M.
Date:	1999
Source:	Paper presented at the Tenth Biennial Southern Silvicultural Research Conference, Shreveport, LA, February 18-18.1999. In: GTR SRS-030
Description:	Forest managers are often interested in identifying and scheduling future stand treatment opportunities. One of the greatest management opportunities is presented following major stand level disturbances that result from natural or anthropogenic forces. Remeasurement data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) permanent plot system are used to fit a set of models that predict the probability of harvest for the five FIA survey units of Georgia. We assume a logistic function that establishes asymptotes at 0 and 1. We found that geographic region, ownership, number of trees per acre, and average stand diameter are correlated to the probability of harvest. A plot was considered harvested if any tree > 5 in. d.b.h. was art The average probability of harvest over the last 8.5 years was approximately 33 percent for the central and southern regions of Georgia. The average rate of harvesting in northern Georgia was 21 percent. These models can be used to predict the probability of harvest for a set of stand conditions and when combined with area expansion factors, to estimate the acreage of harvested stands.
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